One of the best predictors of coming recession is the yield curve. The yield curve represents the difference between short-term interest rates and long-term rates. Normally, we would expect long-term rates to be higher than short-term rates because investors need a higher interest rate to offset the risk of holding a long-term bond. When short-term interest rates go higher than long-term rates, the yield curve becomes inverted.
In the past, this phenomenon occurred prior to a recession. It has accurately predicted recession six out of eight times.
The underlying cause of the inverted yield curve is a tightening of the money supply by the Federal Reserve. Less money, means the price of money (interest rate) goes up. Recently the Feds increased short-term rates to 4.25%. The 10-year bond is currently at 4.4%, so when the FOMC meets again in March, another quarter point increase will shove the short-term rate to 4.5% and unless something drastic happens at the long-term end of the scale, we will have an inverted curve.
Which means that in all likelihood, by the fall of 2006, if not sooner, we will find ourselves in a recession.
Friday, December 23, 2005
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
Absolute Power Corrupts Absolutely
Lord Actons famous quote is one of my favorites. "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely." How true. This is the downfall of all forms of government. When you put someone in power as the head of the government, they believe that they are entitled to special privilege. That for some reason, the laws do not apply to them in the same way. All of a sudden, this person who we voted into office somehow now has extensive knowledge that allows him or her to know what is best for you and I. What we eat, how much we sleep, how we drive, what we put into or onto our bodies, and finally how best to protect us from those bad people "out there."
Do you honestly believe that President Bush has your best interests in mind when he orders wiretaps on you and I without getting a warrant? And don't try to tell me that he needs to be able to act quickly. The federal wiretap law that created the FISA court allows the government to order a wiretap and then ask for a warrant up to two days later. The simple fact of the matter is, our president broke federal law. The power we give our president has corrupted him. He will now stop at nothing.
I remember junior high civics class where we learned about the Russian KGB. We played a game in class where if we could accumulate 50 signatures without getting caught, we would not have to take a test on the unit. However, if we got caught, we had extra homework assigned. The teacher enlisted a few secret informers in each of his classes and none of us were successful in our quest to avoid the test.
It was an eye-opening lesson on how a repressive government controls the people. Guess what folks? America is there now. We have government agencies including the president spying on Americans citizens. We have American citizens being held in prison without due process. We have prisoners of war being tortured in foreign countries even though we signed and support the Geneva Convention.
My prediction is that this Spy-Gate mess will consume the national media for the next several months and could even result in impeachment proceedings. Do you think Dick Cheney will be president? Not a chance. The Valerie Plume investigation is still ongoing. If George goes, my bet is so will Dick.
A tipping point like this would most definitely bring about an economic collapse at least as severe as the one we experienced in the seventies, probably worse. Get your financial affairs in order, before the next shoe falls.
Do you honestly believe that President Bush has your best interests in mind when he orders wiretaps on you and I without getting a warrant? And don't try to tell me that he needs to be able to act quickly. The federal wiretap law that created the FISA court allows the government to order a wiretap and then ask for a warrant up to two days later. The simple fact of the matter is, our president broke federal law. The power we give our president has corrupted him. He will now stop at nothing.
I remember junior high civics class where we learned about the Russian KGB. We played a game in class where if we could accumulate 50 signatures without getting caught, we would not have to take a test on the unit. However, if we got caught, we had extra homework assigned. The teacher enlisted a few secret informers in each of his classes and none of us were successful in our quest to avoid the test.
It was an eye-opening lesson on how a repressive government controls the people. Guess what folks? America is there now. We have government agencies including the president spying on Americans citizens. We have American citizens being held in prison without due process. We have prisoners of war being tortured in foreign countries even though we signed and support the Geneva Convention.
My prediction is that this Spy-Gate mess will consume the national media for the next several months and could even result in impeachment proceedings. Do you think Dick Cheney will be president? Not a chance. The Valerie Plume investigation is still ongoing. If George goes, my bet is so will Dick.
A tipping point like this would most definitely bring about an economic collapse at least as severe as the one we experienced in the seventies, probably worse. Get your financial affairs in order, before the next shoe falls.
Thursday, December 15, 2005
Why Is Gold Money?
Yesterday I asked then question, Do You Own Gold? I gave my reasons why I, and many others, believe that it is important to own some gold as insurance against economic calamity.
I realize that many people may not even understand why gold is important or why it is even considered money. So today I would like to explain.
First, gold has intrinsic value. That means that even if it is not formed into coins, it has value. People continue to find new uses for gold every year. It is the most corrosion-resistant metal known to man. It is the best conductor of electricity. That is why they make gold plated audio cables...no loss of signal. It is beautiful, which is why it is formed into jewelry. There is only so much gold in the world so when we look at all of the uses for gold, we understand why it retains its value.
Gold is easily divisible. This means that it is easy to form it into extremely small coins or heavy golden bars.
It is durable. It will not rot, rust, corrode, break, or evaporate. It is chemically inert, so it will not react with other chemicals.
It is convenient. You can carry your entire wealth in your pocket. Not like having all your money tied up real estate.
It is consistent. 24 Carat gold is the same everywhere. No danger in getting differing qualities.
Finally the most important fact about gold. It cannot be created by governments or banks. Oh, they may try to add impurities, but that is easily discovered. This one fact is why governments and banks bad mouth gold at every opportunity. If you believe what the government tells you, then they have accomplished their goal. I can tell you this, people in China, Japan, and other countries around the world are buying gold. They are concerned about what the governments are doing to their respective paper currencies. As the government increases the supply of paper or digital dollars, the value of those dollars goes down. Gold is not affected by governments except to increase in value relative to the paper dollars.
So, do you own any gold? Well, what are you waiting for?
I realize that many people may not even understand why gold is important or why it is even considered money. So today I would like to explain.
First, gold has intrinsic value. That means that even if it is not formed into coins, it has value. People continue to find new uses for gold every year. It is the most corrosion-resistant metal known to man. It is the best conductor of electricity. That is why they make gold plated audio cables...no loss of signal. It is beautiful, which is why it is formed into jewelry. There is only so much gold in the world so when we look at all of the uses for gold, we understand why it retains its value.
Gold is easily divisible. This means that it is easy to form it into extremely small coins or heavy golden bars.
It is durable. It will not rot, rust, corrode, break, or evaporate. It is chemically inert, so it will not react with other chemicals.
It is convenient. You can carry your entire wealth in your pocket. Not like having all your money tied up real estate.
It is consistent. 24 Carat gold is the same everywhere. No danger in getting differing qualities.
Finally the most important fact about gold. It cannot be created by governments or banks. Oh, they may try to add impurities, but that is easily discovered. This one fact is why governments and banks bad mouth gold at every opportunity. If you believe what the government tells you, then they have accomplished their goal. I can tell you this, people in China, Japan, and other countries around the world are buying gold. They are concerned about what the governments are doing to their respective paper currencies. As the government increases the supply of paper or digital dollars, the value of those dollars goes down. Gold is not affected by governments except to increase in value relative to the paper dollars.
So, do you own any gold? Well, what are you waiting for?
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
Do You Own Gold?
I read an interesting piece yesterday from a well-respected investment guru. He informed his readers that he owns gold and has for some time. Basically, there are two ways to own gold, you buy it and hold it. This would be for insurance.
The other way is as an investment. With this gold you are looking at making a return on your investment. This is much harder to accomplish, but over the last three years, this has been a good one.
The insurance is different. You would hope that nothing happens that would force you to use your insurance, but it never hurts to be prepared. Just as most of us pay life insurance premiums and auto insurance premiums, owning gold is like paying an insurance premium. We certainly do not want to die or be involved in an auto accident. Nor do we want to go through a currency or financial crisis of some sort, but the insurance is there, just the same.
Why gold? It is a constant store of value. You see, when the price of gold goes up, it is not that the value of gold has increased, but the value of money has decreased. So instead of keeping all of your money in dollars or some other paper currency, the gold acts as a hedge against loss.
Now I am not saying that you should keep all of your cash in gold, just some of it. A little will go a long way if gold goes anywhere near its natural high based on the amount of dollars floating around the world.
To give you an idea of how high gold could go; look at the purchasing power of gold during the great depression. An ounce of gold could purchase a brand new Bentley automobile or a hotel in San Francisco. Just four ounces purchased 5,400 acres of prime real estate in California.
Please understand that just because the price of these items has risen so high in recent years does not indicate that they are worth that much hard currency (gold). It means that the purchasing power of the dollar has lost almost all of its value.
The dollar has lost 95% of its value since 1913 and if inflation continues at a modest 2-3% over the next 10-15 years, the dollar will lose another 50% of its value. Gold allows you to rest a little easier at night, knowing that you are insured.
And hey, if nothing happens, and the economy continues to chug along, you can always pass down your gold holdings to your children. I do not know of any other type of insurance that you can purchase once and hand down from generation to generation. Do you?
Remember yesterday I talked about our Risk Adjsuted Asset Management System (RAAMS)? And how it has returned a whopping 162% since 2000? Well, only 10% of our portfolio is in precious metals (gold and silver). Want to find out more, click on the link below and receive a free report.
Click here and receive your free report immediately without any delay.
The other way is as an investment. With this gold you are looking at making a return on your investment. This is much harder to accomplish, but over the last three years, this has been a good one.
The insurance is different. You would hope that nothing happens that would force you to use your insurance, but it never hurts to be prepared. Just as most of us pay life insurance premiums and auto insurance premiums, owning gold is like paying an insurance premium. We certainly do not want to die or be involved in an auto accident. Nor do we want to go through a currency or financial crisis of some sort, but the insurance is there, just the same.
Why gold? It is a constant store of value. You see, when the price of gold goes up, it is not that the value of gold has increased, but the value of money has decreased. So instead of keeping all of your money in dollars or some other paper currency, the gold acts as a hedge against loss.
Now I am not saying that you should keep all of your cash in gold, just some of it. A little will go a long way if gold goes anywhere near its natural high based on the amount of dollars floating around the world.
To give you an idea of how high gold could go; look at the purchasing power of gold during the great depression. An ounce of gold could purchase a brand new Bentley automobile or a hotel in San Francisco. Just four ounces purchased 5,400 acres of prime real estate in California.
Please understand that just because the price of these items has risen so high in recent years does not indicate that they are worth that much hard currency (gold). It means that the purchasing power of the dollar has lost almost all of its value.
The dollar has lost 95% of its value since 1913 and if inflation continues at a modest 2-3% over the next 10-15 years, the dollar will lose another 50% of its value. Gold allows you to rest a little easier at night, knowing that you are insured.
And hey, if nothing happens, and the economy continues to chug along, you can always pass down your gold holdings to your children. I do not know of any other type of insurance that you can purchase once and hand down from generation to generation. Do you?
Remember yesterday I talked about our Risk Adjsuted Asset Management System (RAAMS)? And how it has returned a whopping 162% since 2000? Well, only 10% of our portfolio is in precious metals (gold and silver). Want to find out more, click on the link below and receive a free report.
Click here and receive your free report immediately without any delay.
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Revisiting GM
A few weeks ago I wrote about GMs woes and how the future just does not look good. Today I have a few more facts for you to digest. I hope you do not own GM stock or collect a GM pension check.
Here are some numbers:
1. GM monthly sales are down for the fourth consecutive month.
2. GM lost $4 billion in 2004.
3. GM is slashing 30,000 jobs.
4. GM is closing 12 plants to "bring capacity in line with demand."
5. GM's SUV sales are such a disaster it is offering "Red Tag" discounts of $10,000 on some models.
6. GM's market share fell 1.2% in November, to 23.8%.
7. Industry wide vehicle sales fell 15.7 million units, from 16.6 million a year earlier.
Things are not looking too good for our bell weather stock are they? Here is another fact that is hard to escape. It costs GM $2500 more to build a car than it does Toyota. Most of this cost comes from GMs ever increasing medical insurance costs. You see, GM has nearly twice as many retirees as current employees. GM provides pension checks and medical coverage for these retirees. Over the next several years as GM reduces their workforce by 30,000 the percentage of retirees to employees will climb even higher. GM has dug itself into a hole from which there is no escape.
Now their latest news release: GM will increase production in 2006 to 1.25 million vehicles up from 1.18 million this year; a 6% increase. Does anybody see a problem here? Why would you increase production when you are selling less vehicles, trimming your workforce and shutting 12 plants to "bring capacity in line with production?"
There is only one answer; the management at GM is incompetent. They deserve whatever befalls them. Unfortunately, our ever-vigilant government will probably step in and bail them out when the hammer falls. This will only prolong the inevitable. And remember, as GM goes, so goes the country.
As mentioned last week, our Risk Adjusted Asset Management System (RAAMS) indicates that we are in a period of high market risk and therefore we are invested in defensive funds to take advantage of any adverse move. Does it work? Well, since 2000 our portfolio has increased 162%. How have your investments done the last five years?
To find out more about RAAMS, click below for a free report.
Click here and receive your guide immediately without any delay.
Here are some numbers:
1. GM monthly sales are down for the fourth consecutive month.
2. GM lost $4 billion in 2004.
3. GM is slashing 30,000 jobs.
4. GM is closing 12 plants to "bring capacity in line with demand."
5. GM's SUV sales are such a disaster it is offering "Red Tag" discounts of $10,000 on some models.
6. GM's market share fell 1.2% in November, to 23.8%.
7. Industry wide vehicle sales fell 15.7 million units, from 16.6 million a year earlier.
Things are not looking too good for our bell weather stock are they? Here is another fact that is hard to escape. It costs GM $2500 more to build a car than it does Toyota. Most of this cost comes from GMs ever increasing medical insurance costs. You see, GM has nearly twice as many retirees as current employees. GM provides pension checks and medical coverage for these retirees. Over the next several years as GM reduces their workforce by 30,000 the percentage of retirees to employees will climb even higher. GM has dug itself into a hole from which there is no escape.
Now their latest news release: GM will increase production in 2006 to 1.25 million vehicles up from 1.18 million this year; a 6% increase. Does anybody see a problem here? Why would you increase production when you are selling less vehicles, trimming your workforce and shutting 12 plants to "bring capacity in line with production?"
There is only one answer; the management at GM is incompetent. They deserve whatever befalls them. Unfortunately, our ever-vigilant government will probably step in and bail them out when the hammer falls. This will only prolong the inevitable. And remember, as GM goes, so goes the country.
As mentioned last week, our Risk Adjusted Asset Management System (RAAMS) indicates that we are in a period of high market risk and therefore we are invested in defensive funds to take advantage of any adverse move. Does it work? Well, since 2000 our portfolio has increased 162%. How have your investments done the last five years?
To find out more about RAAMS, click below for a free report.
Click here and receive your guide immediately without any delay.
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Bear Market to Resume Shortly
If you have read my previous posts, you will know that I believe we are in the midst of a secular bear market. The last secular bear market occurred in the late 1960s and lasted until 1982. Secular bear markets are like secular bull markets, they last a long time. Typically a bear market does not end until stock valuations as measured by P/E ratios drop below what I call the normal range. The average range for P/E ratios historically runs between about 14 and 17. We are currently at about 19.3, which is still a little high. The current bear market will not be finished until we see P/E ratios down in the single digit range. To get there, one of two things must happen. Either the prices of stocks must drop (best bet) or earnings must go through the roof (slim chance).
An article yesterday on Bloomberg Here announced that the housing bubble has burst. Now I don't know if that is an accurate assessment or not, but like I have said before, once these things start appearing in the mainstream press, they tend to become self-fulfilling. I have been predicting this for some period of time simply because of loose credit, low rates, and massive money creation.
Now back to the bear market. As you know, the market does not move in a straight line. Instead it tends to move in waves, up and down. Lately we have been in an up wave. In fact a recent article by Mike Burk here states that all the major indexes closed within 1% of multiyear highs. He claims that this is an indication of a bull market. I disagree. I believe that what we have seen the past several months has been nothing more than a bear market rally. Otherwise known as a bear trap. Don't get caught.
If the housing market takes it in the shorts as I believe it will, then we can look forward to a resumption of the bear market. I certainly hope you have positioned yourself to take advantage of this market environment.
Our Risk Adjusted Asset Management System (RAAMS) indicates that we are in a period of high market risk and therefore we are invested in defensive assets and funds to take advantage of any adverse move. Does it work? Well, since 2000 our portfolio has increased 162%. How has your investments done the last five years?
To find out more about RAAMS, click below for a free report.
Click here and receive your free report immediately without any delay.
An article yesterday on Bloomberg Here announced that the housing bubble has burst. Now I don't know if that is an accurate assessment or not, but like I have said before, once these things start appearing in the mainstream press, they tend to become self-fulfilling. I have been predicting this for some period of time simply because of loose credit, low rates, and massive money creation.
Now back to the bear market. As you know, the market does not move in a straight line. Instead it tends to move in waves, up and down. Lately we have been in an up wave. In fact a recent article by Mike Burk here states that all the major indexes closed within 1% of multiyear highs. He claims that this is an indication of a bull market. I disagree. I believe that what we have seen the past several months has been nothing more than a bear market rally. Otherwise known as a bear trap. Don't get caught.
If the housing market takes it in the shorts as I believe it will, then we can look forward to a resumption of the bear market. I certainly hope you have positioned yourself to take advantage of this market environment.
Our Risk Adjusted Asset Management System (RAAMS) indicates that we are in a period of high market risk and therefore we are invested in defensive assets and funds to take advantage of any adverse move. Does it work? Well, since 2000 our portfolio has increased 162%. How has your investments done the last five years?
To find out more about RAAMS, click below for a free report.
Click here and receive your free report immediately without any delay.
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
NEW ELEMENT FOUND!
This comes from Gary Halbert, one of the world's best copywriters. You can read more of his writing at http://www.thegaryhalbertletter.com He posts copies of his newsletter free for the reading. Enjoy!
The recent hurricanes and skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices helped to prove the existence of a new element. In early October 2005, a major research institution announced the discovery of the heaviest element yet known to science.The new element has been named "Governmentium."
Governmentium (Gv) has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called 'morons' which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called 'peons.' Since Gv has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A minute amount of Gv causes one reaction to take over four days to complete, when it would normally take less than a second!
Gv has a normal half-life of 4 years; it does not decay; but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutronsexchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming 'isodopes.' This characteristic of moron promotion leads most scientists to believe that Gv is formed whenever morons reach a certain quantity in concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as 'Critical Morass.'
When catalyzed with money, Gv becomes "Administratium' (Am) - an element which radiates just as much energy as Gv, since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.
The recent hurricanes and skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices helped to prove the existence of a new element. In early October 2005, a major research institution announced the discovery of the heaviest element yet known to science.The new element has been named "Governmentium."
Governmentium (Gv) has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces called 'morons' which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called 'peons.' Since Gv has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact. A minute amount of Gv causes one reaction to take over four days to complete, when it would normally take less than a second!
Gv has a normal half-life of 4 years; it does not decay; but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutronsexchange places. In fact, Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming 'isodopes.' This characteristic of moron promotion leads most scientists to believe that Gv is formed whenever morons reach a certain quantity in concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as 'Critical Morass.'
When catalyzed with money, Gv becomes "Administratium' (Am) - an element which radiates just as much energy as Gv, since it has half as many peons but twice as many morons.
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Platform Companies and The End of The Welfare State
Below is an email I sent to George Ure of UrbanSurvival.com. It concerns comments he made about the increasing issues surrounding global outsourcing and a new book that has been written on the subject. If he replies, I'll post his response tomorrow.
As you read the letter, think about how this could affect you. Are you a production worker or a service worker in an industry that could outsource your job overseas? Are you currently enrolled in a government entitlement program that could disappear in the next 10 years? How will these changes affect your standard of living? How will you prepare for these changes?
Dear George,
As always, I enjoy reading your thoughts on all manner of things economic. This week is no exception. Being away from my desk for a couple of days, I had to go back and catch up. Of interest was the GAO report to congress discussing the issues surrounding global outsourcing. I would direct your attention to a recent book "Our Brave New World" by Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave, and Anatole Koletsky.
While I do not agree with everything they say about how the trend in global outsourcing will affect our economy, they make some interesting observations. First, they see a rise in "platform companies." These are companies which design and market products and services while farming out production to low-cost manufacturers, usually overseas in low-cost labor countries.
They have significantly lower capital costs, no factories to build and maintain, no expensive equipment to buy, and no workers to pay or lay off when the economy slows down. In fact, the authors believe that these "platform companies" are the new growth companies based on how they are organized.
The second and what seems to me, a more important point is their observation that as more companies switch to the "platform company" model, many will begin to realize that they should domicile their research and marketing activities in countries with low marginal tax rates. This benefits the employees as well as the shareholders, but it sounds a death knell for a government that has an ever-increasing appetite for tax revenue to fund operations and pay interest.
In fact this migration has already started. On any given day, the biggest foreign net buyer or seller of US Treasuries is the Caribbean Islands. This is due to some of the largest hedge funds operating in the Caribbean Islands. And it doesn't stop with financial companies. Electronic Arts is incorporated in the Caymans, Hong Kong Land is incorporated in Bermuda. If this trend continues, it will lead to a collapse in tax receipts in countries that do not adjust to this new model. And as you pointed out in your comments following the GAO report, the paradigm shifts ever so slowly.
They conclude that the rise of "platform companies" could lead to the end of the Welfare State. I wonder if the GAO or anyone in government has managed to reach these conclusions?
Hope you enjoyed the letter. If taking charge of your financial future is something you are interested in pursuing, click below and send for my free report, "The Risk Adjusted Asset Management System (RAAMS)."
Click here and receive your free report immediately without any delay.
As you read the letter, think about how this could affect you. Are you a production worker or a service worker in an industry that could outsource your job overseas? Are you currently enrolled in a government entitlement program that could disappear in the next 10 years? How will these changes affect your standard of living? How will you prepare for these changes?
Dear George,
As always, I enjoy reading your thoughts on all manner of things economic. This week is no exception. Being away from my desk for a couple of days, I had to go back and catch up. Of interest was the GAO report to congress discussing the issues surrounding global outsourcing. I would direct your attention to a recent book "Our Brave New World" by Charles and Louis-Vincent Gave, and Anatole Koletsky.
While I do not agree with everything they say about how the trend in global outsourcing will affect our economy, they make some interesting observations. First, they see a rise in "platform companies." These are companies which design and market products and services while farming out production to low-cost manufacturers, usually overseas in low-cost labor countries.
They have significantly lower capital costs, no factories to build and maintain, no expensive equipment to buy, and no workers to pay or lay off when the economy slows down. In fact, the authors believe that these "platform companies" are the new growth companies based on how they are organized.
The second and what seems to me, a more important point is their observation that as more companies switch to the "platform company" model, many will begin to realize that they should domicile their research and marketing activities in countries with low marginal tax rates. This benefits the employees as well as the shareholders, but it sounds a death knell for a government that has an ever-increasing appetite for tax revenue to fund operations and pay interest.
In fact this migration has already started. On any given day, the biggest foreign net buyer or seller of US Treasuries is the Caribbean Islands. This is due to some of the largest hedge funds operating in the Caribbean Islands. And it doesn't stop with financial companies. Electronic Arts is incorporated in the Caymans, Hong Kong Land is incorporated in Bermuda. If this trend continues, it will lead to a collapse in tax receipts in countries that do not adjust to this new model. And as you pointed out in your comments following the GAO report, the paradigm shifts ever so slowly.
They conclude that the rise of "platform companies" could lead to the end of the Welfare State. I wonder if the GAO or anyone in government has managed to reach these conclusions?
Hope you enjoyed the letter. If taking charge of your financial future is something you are interested in pursuing, click below and send for my free report, "The Risk Adjusted Asset Management System (RAAMS)."
Click here and receive your free report immediately without any delay.
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